Republicans are likely to pick up seven seats currently held by Democrats in November.
Two additional seats, currently held by Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), appointed by the New York Governor after Hillary Clinton vacated the seat to assume duties as Secretary of State, are currently tossups. If the GOP runs the table on all vulnerable seats and tossup seats, the GOP will take over the Senate as the majority party.
The table below is color coded. Red font denotes the seat is currently held by a Republican, and blue font denotes the seat is currently held by a Democrat.
Safe Democrat 5
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Hawaii -- Inouye
Maryland -- Mikulski
Oregon -- Ron Wyden
Vermont -- Patrick Leahy
Washington -- Patty Murray
Likely Democrat 4
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Connecticut -- open CT Atty Gen. Richard Blumenthal (D) vs. Linda McMahon, wife of Vince McMahon World Wrestling Entertainment, Peter Schiff, President of Euro Pacific Capital (Ron Paul)
New York -- Schumer vs. Larry Kudlow (R)
Leans Democrat 3
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Wisconsin -- Russ Feingold vs. Tommy Thompson (R)
Tossup 2
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California -- Barbara Boxer vs. Chuck Devore or Carly Fiorina
New York -- Kirsten Gillibrand vs. George Pataki (R)
Leans Republican 7
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Illinois -- open Rep Mark Kirk (R) vs Alexi Giannoulias (D)
Indiana -- Evan Bayh (D) vs. trails Rep. Mike Pence (R) 47 - 44 Edges Fmr Rep John Hostettler 44 - 41
Kentucky -- Open seat. Trey Grayson (R); Rand Paul (R) lead polls against all Dem challengers
Louisiana -- Incumbent David Vitter (R) Leads all Dem challengers by at least 18 pts. Charlie Melancon (D)
Missouri -- open Roy Blunt (R) 6 pt. lead over Robin Carnahan (D) Leads by 3 pts.
North Carolina -- Richard Burr (R)
Ohio -- Rob Portman (R) vs. Lee Fisher (D), Jeffifer Brunner (D) (coattails of John Kasick running for Governor)
Pennsylvania -- Specter (D) v. Toomey (R)
Colorado -- open Michael Bennet (D) vs. Fmr LT Gov. Jane Norton (R) leads by 3 pts.
Likely Republican 5
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Arkansas -- Lincoln v. 4 Republicans
Florida -- Christ/Rubio (R) vs. Meek (D)
Delaware -- open Rep Mike Castle (R) vs. Beau Biden decided not to run
Nevada -- Reid (D) vs. Lowden/ Danny Tarkanian (R)
New Hampshire -- open Hodes (D) v. Ayotte (R)
Safe Republican 11
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Alabama -- Richard Shelby (R)
Alaska -- Lisa Murkowski (R)
Arizona -- McCain or Hayworth
Georgia -- John Isakson (R)
Idaho -- Mike Crapo (R)
Kansas -- Brownback (R) retiring
North Dakota -- Byron Dorgan retiring open Gov. John Hoeven (R) vs. no candidate
Oklahoma -- Tom Coburn (R)
South Carolina -- Jim DeMint (R)
South Dakota -- John Thune (R)
Utah -- Robert Bennett (R)
Iowa -- Chuck Grassley (R)
California
Boxer leads former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina by just three points, 46% to 43%. In November, Boxer was also at the 46% level of support but led Fiorina by nine points.
The longtime Democratic senator runs best right now against state Assemblyman Chuck Devore, beating him by six points, 46% to 40%. Two months ago, though, she posted a 10-point lead on DeVore, 49% to 39%.
As for Tom Campbell, the ex-congressman and former state finance director who on Thursday quit the governor’s race to jump into the Senate contest, Boxer leads him by just four points, 46% to 42%.
Illinois
Alexi Giannoulias, is a product of the ethically-tainted political machine in Chicago that was run by disgraced Governor Rod Blagojevich. As the state's first term Treasurer, Giannoulias has eagerly endorsed his party's out-of-control spending agenda in Washington, and he has failed to reject the Obama Administration's plans to detain and try terrorists on American soil. Mark Kirk is currently leading Giannoulias in the polls by 6 points.
Colorado
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in Colorado finds the top Republican candidate with a 12-point lead over Bennet, 49% to 37%. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and 11% remain undecided.
