On Sunday morning's news programs, Democrats from the House as well as Obama's administration have been boasting that they will have the votes to pass health care reform by week's end. Rhodes News has completed an analysis and their whip count strategy.
The House landscape has changed a bit since November's House vote. The Democrats hold four less seats than they did in November. Rep. Eric Massa (D-NY) resigned, and Rep Jack Murtha (D-PA) passed away. Neil Ambercromie (D-HI) resigned to run for governor, and Robert Wexler (D-FL) resigned to move to the private sector. Of these four, only one, Massa, voted against the bill, so that's a net loss of three votes.
The lone Republican to vote for the ObamaCare bill in November, Joseph Cao (R-LA) has announced his intention to vote against the Senate version this time around. If all other votes hold constant then Pelosi's whip count is 216, the exact number she needs for majority.
Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) voted against the bill in November, only because the legislation was not liberal enough for his taste, lacking a "government option." Kucinich announced his "yes" vote Wednesday. That brings the count up to 217.
Further, three representatives, all Democrats, have announced their retirement for the upcoming election. They are: Brian Baird (D-WA), Bart Gordon (D-TN), John Tanner (D-TN). Baird voted to "yes" in November and is not expected to change his vote. Gordon and Tanner voted against it, but now that they have announced their retirement, we must assume they will change their vote to support ObamaCare, since they will not have to face their constituents in an election in November. It will be easier for them to simply go along with leadership arm-twisting than it will be for them to buck the brutal threats of the Beltway leadership. That brings the whip count up to 219 for the Democrats.
Clearly, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi does not yet have 219 votes yet, for if she did she would take the bill to floor now. Everyone has their eye on the "Stupak Coalition," a group of nineteen pro-life Democrats in the House. Of this group, only Tanner and Gordon split Democrat party ranks to vote againt the bill in November, and as mentioned before, both are now considered "yes" votes.
Pelosi's problem is that many Democrats who voted for the bill in November are not holding firm and are in fact peeling away toward the Republican side of the isle. These are Democrats who are dissatisfied with the Senate's version which would permit indirect federal funding of health care plans that cover abortions. Six pro-life Democrats from the Stupak Coalition are refusing to budge on principle. They are: Kathy Dahlkemper (PA), Joe Donnelley (IN), Brad Ellesworth (IN), Solomon Ortiz (TX), Bart Stupak (MI), and Steve Direhouse (OH).
Even with these representatives moving to the "No" column, that brings Pelosi's whip count down to 212, still dangerously close striking distance. Thirty eight moderate democrats voted against the bill in November, and aside from Tanner and Gordon, we expect will maintain their "no" vote, much as Team Pelosi/Obama might try to peel them off.
Further, five more of members of the Stupak coalition have voiced their concerns and are now clearly in the "undecided" column: Jerry Costello (IL), Barron Hill (IN), Dianne Lipinski (IL), Kaptur, Marcy Kaptur (OH) and James Oberstar (MN). The motives for these representatives are unclear, whether they are wavering because of their pro-life stance, or because of the heat they are feeling from their constituents back home. Both factors may be weighing on their decision.
In addition to these eleven pro-life Democrats, ten Democrats from swing districts, who voted for the bill in November, who have made public statements suggesting they might be backing off: Christopher Carney (PA), Zack Space, (OH), Jerrold Adler (NJ) Michael Arcuri (NY), Henry Cuellar (TX), Luis Guterriez (IL), Edward Markey (CO), Jerry NcNerney (CA), Earl Pomeroy (ND) and Charlie Wilson (OH). That brings Pelosi's whip count down to 210 at best. Add in the five as-yet undecided pro-life Democrats and Pelosi's whip count drops to 198--eighteen votes short.
This leaves 21 Democrat representatives who remain undecided. Of these, Pelosi needs 18 of them them to win the vote. With this information, the American people can narrow their from-home-district lobbying focus, with a more concentrated barrage of persuasive emails, phone calls, and faxes, in an effort to persuade moderate Democrats to vote down ObamaCare.
TrackBack URI for this entry
Subscribe to this comment's feed
