Passage of President Obama's health care reform plan hinges on the Democrat's strategy to cut off Senate debate on the bill and proceed to vote for it by a simple majority of 50 votes.
Republicans will attempt to filibuster the bill by continuing endless debate. The only way the Senate may defeat a filibuster is with "yea" a vote on "cloture" to end debate, which requires 60 votes rather than a simple majority.
Some Democrat senators are wavering. Harry Reid (D-NV) and other Democrat senate leaders are working hard to convince every moderate Democrat that they must vote for cloture, even though they may ultimately vote against the bill when it comes to the floor.
Here are how the votes stack up: The Democrats hold 58 seats, Republicans hold 40. Two Independents hold seats, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and Sen. Joeseph Leiberman of Connecticut. Sanders is firmly in the Democrat camp, as is Arlen Specter, Republican-turned-Democrat, and he has announced his support, giving the Democrats 59 votes for cloture.
But there are some wild cards. Sen. Leiberman has not forecasted his vote on cloture. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NB) are also said to be wavering. of all the Democrat Senators, Sen. Lincoln is in the most serious trouble as she is up for reelection in a very red state. In addition, Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV), at 91, the Senate's eldest sitting member, fell in his home last month and was hospitalized. There might be a question as to whether he will be healthy enough to show up to vote. Further, some speculate that Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) might vote for cloture and then vote against the bill on the floor.
In order to defeat the filibuster, every Democrat senator must vote for cloture, as well as either Sen. Leiberman or a defecting Republican.
These Democratic senators are all feeling the heat. On one hand, they are under tremendous pressure from the Senate Party Leadership and the White House. On the other, they have heard from angry and radical "Tea Baggers" during town hall meetings, and from an avalanche of phone calls, emails, and faxes, who object to helping people who cannot afford their own health care insurance.
On Tuesday the Senate Finance Committee will vote the bill forwarded to go to the Senate floor. The only question is the outcome of the filibuster. The cloture vote will be very close, and it will mean the difference between whether this health care reform bill gets passed or not.
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